An estimate never meets an outcome, so an estimate tool can never grade itself. Priors tracks what actually happens: the resale that records, the lease that fills, the calendar that books. That means our reads can be tested against reality, in public, misses included. This page regrades itself every week.
One boundary, stated up front: no number can see inside a specific house. A renovated kitchen, a tired roof, an amenity the neighbors do not have all move the real answer, and they only enter the picture when someone walks the property or tells us what has been done to it. Within that boundary, the grades below are about as close as a number gets.
For 2,049 leased Memphis rentals we ran the read blind, then compared it to the rent each one actually leased at. Median miss: 8.2%, with 88% of reads inside 25% of the leased rent.
The basis, stated: signed rents are not public record in Tennessee, so each read is graded against the final advertised rent at the moment the listing leased, the closest recorded number to the signature.
For 1,358 finished Memphis flips, we reconstructed the read as it would have printed before each resale, using only records available at the time, with the house's own history excluded. Then we compared the read to the price that recorded.
How the grading works: for each realized flip in the 18-month test window, generated Jul 2026, the read is reconstructed as of the resale date using only records available at the time, with the test house excluded from its own evidence, so no read ever sees its own answer. The confidence tier printed on every live read is the same tier graded here: thin pockets miss worse, and the read says so before you rely on it.
A ledger that only shows hits is an ad. These are recent reads the record disagreed with:
A published grade is only half the discipline. The other half is the loop behind it: every read is graded against what later recorded, and the model only changes when the change makes the grade better. The standing rule is simple. No update ships unless it beats this ledger on the full blind test.
This is the part an estimate tool structurally cannot do: an estimate never finds out it was wrong, so it never gets better on a schedule. Priors does, because it is built on outcomes, and the numbers on this page move as it improves.
Every Airbnb projection you have ever seen is a market average: a zip and bedroom-count median dressed up as your number. We tested that method against 1,546 Memphis listings with a full year on their calendar: for each one, the average of its own class, with the listing itself excluded, was asked to guess its year. The typical guess missed by 50%, and landed within 25% only 27% of the time.
What this means: no average can price a specific house. Two listings on the same block with the same bedrooms can gross far apart on operator quality alone, which is why a market-average projection is a guess wearing a decimal point. The per-address read exists because of exactly this, and grading it against subsequent calendar years is the next panel on this ledger.
Every figure on this page is computed from public records and our own tracked observations, regraded on a weekly cycle; this bake: July 18, 2026. Public records contain errors, omissions, and recording lags. Grades describe historical model performance, not a promise about any future read. Nothing here is an appraisal, a broker price opinion, or lending, investment, tax, or legal advice.